ROUND_11 · HUNGARORING
Hungarian GP 2026did we call it right?
Before the race we ran this GP 300 times through our engine, starting from the real qualifying grid, and published the odds. The race has now been run: here is the contrast, misses included.
VERDICT · RACE RUN
What we saidand what happened
Norris won — the model's favourite — and it was McLaren's first win of the year
The model had Lando Norris as the favourite on 22.7% of 300 simulations, ahead of the rest of the grid. He won.
2.69
Avg. position error
across 19 finishers
0.80
Order correlation
1 = exact order
8/8
Front of the race
of the predicted top
8/10
Points scorers
called right
| Actual | Driver | Grid | Predicted | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lando NorrisMcLarenLost the lead to Piastri on lap 1 and took it back with a well-timed second stop. | 1 | 4.00 | -3.00 |
| 2 | Max VerstappenRed Bull | 4 | 5.30 | -3.30 |
| 3 | Kimi AntonelliMercedesClimbed from 7th to 3rd on race pace and strategy. | 7 | 4.30 | -1.30 |
| 4 | Charles LeclercFerrari | 2 | 4.40 | -0.40 |
| 5 | Lewis HamiltonFerrariFinished 4th on the road but dropped behind Leclerc after a 5s pit lane speeding penalty. | 5 | 4.70 | +0.30 |
| 6 | Isack HadjarRed Bull | 8 | 8.20 | -2.20 |
| 7 | George RussellMercedes | 6 | 4.30 | +2.70 |
| 8 | Liam LawsonRacing Bulls | 11 | 11.50 | -3.50 |
| 9 | Nico HulkenbergAudi | 10 | 15.00 | -6.00 |
| 10 | Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls | 9 | 13.00 | -3.00 |
| 11 | Gabriel BortoletoAudi | 14 | 16.90 | -5.90 |
| 12 | Pierre GaslyAlpine | 12 | 13.00 | -1.00 |
| 13 | Lance StrollAston Martin | 20 | 19.00 | -6.00 |
| 14 | Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | 16 | 12.60 | +1.40 |
| 15 | Franco ColapintoAlpine | 13 | 13.90 | +1.10 |
| 16 | Esteban OconHaas | 15 | 14.80 | +1.20 |
| 17 | Alexander AlbonWilliams | 19 | 15.70 | +1.30 |
| 18 | Carlos SainzWilliams | 18 | 13.90 | +4.10 |
| 19 | Oliver BearmanHaas | 17 | 15.60 | +3.40 |
| DNF | Oscar PiastriMcLarenWas running 2nd and heading for the podium; retired on lap 56 with a gearbox problem. | 3 | 4.60 | — |
| DNF | Sergio PerezCadillac | 22 | 18.00 | — |
| DNF | Valtteri BottasCadillac | 21 | 18.90 | — |
Where the model got it wrong
- Nico Hulkenberg predicted around P15.00, finished 9th (6.00 places off).
- Lance Stroll predicted around P19.00, finished 13th (6.00 places off).
- Gabriel Bortoleto predicted around P16.90, finished 11th (5.90 places off).
- Carlos Sainz predicted around P13.90, finished 18th (4.10 places off).
- Did not see Nico Hulkenberg, Arvid Lindblad scoring.
The pattern is clear: the model orders the front of the race well and underrates the midfield, because each car's performance is set per season and does not capture a given weekend's form. That is the biggest known limitation, and the next one to attack.
Official result: Formula1.com. The probabilities were published BEFORE the race and have not been touched since.
The preview, exactly as published
Favourite
Lando Norris 22.7%
Wins 22.7% of the simulations and finishes on the podium in 53.7%. Starts P1.
Driver by driver
| Grid | Driver | Win | Podium | Avg. finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | Lando Norris | 22.7% | 53.7% | P4 |
| P2 | Charles Leclerc | 18.7% | 47% | P4.4 |
| P3 | Oscar Piastri | 14% | 47% | P4.6 |
| P4 | Max Verstappen | 6% | 28.7% | P5.3 |
| P5 | Lewis Hamilton | 11% | 38.7% | P4.7 |
| P6 | George Russell | 14.3% | 44.7% | P4.3 |
| P7 | Kimi Antonelli | 13.3% | 39.7% | P4.3 |
| P8 | Isack Hadjar | 0% | 0.7% | P8.2 |
| P9 | Arvid Lindblad | 0% | 0% | P13 |
| P10 | Nico Hulkenberg | 0% | 0% | P15 |
| P11 | Liam Lawson | 0% | 0% | P11.5 |
| P12 | Pierre Gasly | 0% | 0% | P13 |
| P13 | Franco Colapinto | 0% | 0% | P13.9 |
| P14 | Gabriel Bortoleto | 0% | 0% | P16.9 |
| P15 | Esteban Ocon | 0% | 0% | P14.8 |
| P16 | Fernando Alonso | 0% | 0% | P12.6 |
| P17 | Oliver Bearman | 0% | 0% | P15.6 |
| P18 | Carlos Sainz | 0% | 0% | P13.9 |
| P19 | Alexander Albon | 0% | 0% | P15.7 |
| P20 | Lance Stroll | 0% | 0% | P19 |
| P21 | Valtteri Bottas | 0% | 0% | P18.9 |
| P22 | Sergio Perez | 0% | 0% | P18 |
How the model works
Track position is weighted by how hard it is to overtake at each circuit, so pole is worth a lot at the Hungaroring and very little at Monza. On a tight, twisty track where passing is brutal, starting at the front is half the job — which is why Lando Norris comes out favourite at 22.7% without having the fastest car of the season.
A favourite who only wins one race in four is not a broken model: that is what a real Grand Prix looks like. A retirement, a safety car at the wrong moment or a slow stop flips the result, and the engine simulates all of them. That is why 7 drivers have a genuine shot rather than a single name circled in red.
The most interesting column is the average finish: Carlos Sainz starts P18 and averages P13.9, the biggest gain on the grid — the driver the model thinks is most underrated by where he qualified.
The numbers come from 300 full race simulations (70 laps) with car and driver ratings updated to this point of the season. This is not betting advice and not an official prediction: it is what our model said. The odds were published before the race and have not been touched since — the contrast with the real result is above.